Beyond Blighty: Where are all the Republicans?

No, I'm not talking about the Royal Wedding.

By this date in 2007 all the main contenders for the 2008 Presidential election had declared their intention to run. Two weeks ago President Obama announced that he would run for re-election and lunched his campaign, but where are his Republican rivals? Currently only five people have declared their intention to run for the Republican nomination for President, none of them have held public office before and none are likely to get the nomination. The people who have the best chance of getting it (Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingrich, Sarah Palin...) seem strangely quite.

Campaigning for the 2008 election did start earlier than any other in US history, but even so, the reluctance of major Republicans to declare is interesting. Pres. Obama has looked vulnerable in recent months, but it's clear his potential opponents for next year's election are rightly wary of his campaigning skills.

Beyond Blighty: Violence and politics

It's often said that the US is a politically divided country. There is a clear split between the progressive left and the ultra-conservative right, but today both sides are united in their condemnation of the shooting of Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords and seventeen others, six of which were killed.

It was especially shocking for me as I briefly met Congresswoman Giffords in Texas, eight years ago when she was a State Senator.

In many ways, there has always been some form of divide in US politics. It has been intense in the last few years but there has been little violence compared to the past. In the 1960s, often relating to the issue of segregation, there were many political assassinations in the US, most notably President Kennedy, his brother Robert, and Martin Luther King.

Hopefully Congresswoman Giffords, a rising star in the Democratic party, will recover and the shooting will be a tragic but isolated attack. However, as was seen in the UK after the attack on Stephen Timms last year, it does endanger a fundamental part of a democratic society, which is the right of the people to have access to their elected representatives.

What does 2011 offer for political nerds?

On 13 January there will be a by-election in Oldham East and Saddleworth to fill the seat left by Labour's Phil Woolas. Like every by-election, it is a key test for the three main parties and their leaders, but Ed Miliband and the Nick Clegg have the most to gain - and lose.

Then on 5 May there are so many elections and referendums, political commentators will find it difficult to keep up. There are elections for councils across the UK, the Welsh Assembly, Northern Ireland Assembly and the Scottish Parliament are all up for election on that date as well, and there is also a referendum in Wales on whether to give the Assembly law-making powers.

Of course, the main attraction on 5 May will be the referendum on changing the voting system in the House of Commons to AV. The vote (only the second UK-wide referendum in British history) will be a somewhat bizarre as most Conservative MPs are opposed to AV, while most Liberal Democrats will support the change. The result will have lasting repercussions for the Coalition, but also for the future of British politics. If the people support the change, there may never be a majority government again.

More inner conflicts in the Coalition are bound to appear over the next year, it will be interesting to see how the two parties hold together, if they do at all. If the Coalition does fall apart it will mean a general election, which none of the main parties want at the moment. 2011 will probably be a troubled year for the Euro and a difficult time for those who experience the government cuts.

Beyond Blighty and across the pond, the candidates for the 2012 Presidential election will declare their intention to run in the next few months. Most will be Republicans, but given President Obama's recent difficulties, a few Democrats might emerge - though they are unlikely to be notable or successful. As for the Republicans, Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin are the ones to watch, but American politics has a tendency to bring up surprise candidates. The first presidential primaries are just 13 months away - they'll be here before we know it!

Beyond Blighty: A good day for Pres. Obama?

It's something of a clique to say that the next election begins the day after the last vote of the previous election has been counted, but the case of the US, it's very true. There is already speculation about which Republicans will run for President in 2012.

This sort of thing happens at the end of all midterms, what makes this time different is that the result of this election means we already know the result of the next – Barack Obama will win a second term.

This may seem like a strange prediction given Pres. Obama's glum assessment of the midterm results, but he shouldn't be too worried as history is on his side. Harry S. Truman in 1946, Ronald Reagan in 1982 and Bill Clinton in 1994 all suffered heavy losses in the midterms and all went on the win re-election with ease.

Of course, using history to predict the future is very dangerous, but there are other things to cheer up the Democrats today. Tea Party candidates did very well in many states, which has unnerved many moderate Republicans as the Tea Party's views are significantly to the right of most American voters. And yet, this insurgent group will have a great influence over the next Republican Nominee for President, who may end up being unelectable as a result.

One other thing that might make Pres. Obama feel a little better. With Republicans in charge of the House of Representatives, the President can blame them when things go wrong.

Beyond Blighty: The rise of the Tea Party

On 16 December 1773 a group of colonists in Boston harbour, in the British colony of Massachusetts Bay, boarded several ships which were carrying tea bound for Britain. In protest to the British imposed taxes on tea, the colonists through the ships' cargo into the water of the harbour. This became known as the 'Boston tea party' and was one of the earliest rumblings of the American Revolution, which lead to the formation of the United States.

As a Brit, I feel it is my duty to point out that the taxes on tea were actually at an historic low in 1773, and many of the people who through the tea overboard were in fact smugglers who were worried that cheap tea would threaten their illicit business. Also, the taxes in the American colonies were far lower than those in Great Britain. But of course, the people of Britain elected the people who taxed them, the colonists did not.

The story of 'brave colonists' opposing taxation without representation became part of America's creation myth and the tea party became a byword for a very American type of rebellion.

So it was no surprise when, last year, a group of Americans, who were unhappy with President Obama's economic stimulus bill, bailouts and healthcare reform, began a series of protests called 'tea parties'. Within just a few months, what was just a group of disgruntled protesters, has now became one of the most influential political movements in the US today. The Tea Party movement's sudden rise has been compared to the similarly sudden rise of the movement which brought Barrack Obama to power in 2008, although neither group would like the comparison.

It is an oversimplification to say the Tea Party movement is just a group of people who oppose President Obama, but it is true to say the vast majority of the movement's supporters do not like him. Some of the protesters have very good reasons for this, some just don't like the President for no good reason at all.

Like 2008, this is an election year in the US, and although the President himself is not up for election, all of the House of Representatives and a third of the Senate will be facing the voters on 2 November this year.

Last Tuesday there were several primaries to choose party nominees for the elections in November and there were some surprise results which were said to be caused by the Tea Party's influence. The most notable of these was Rand Paul who won the Republican nomination for one of Kentucky's Senate seats. Paul is a libertarian and seen as the Tea Party's favoured candidate.

The power of the Tea Party has not been welcomed in all parts of the Republican party. In Florida, Governor Charles Crist had hoped to get the Republican nomination for one of Florida's Senate seats, but instead the nomination went to Marco Rubio, who was strongly supported by the Tea Party. Crist is now standing as an independent candidate, which could split the Republican vote in November and lead to the Democrat's nominee winning the seat.

Some say President Obama should be concerned about the power of the Tea Party, I don't think he has too much to worry about. Although, I wonder if people said the same thing to the British government in 1773?